Volume 6, Issue 12, December – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456-2165

Trend Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in

Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
Tpl. Sunday I. Bassey PhD., Ms. Perpetual O. Emmanuel
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
Cross River University of Technology, Calabar

Abstract:- This study is focused on examining the (Finch, Komptiner, Lockwood, and Maycock, 1999). This
trendand pattern of road traffic accidents in Port culminates in almost 68 people killed in every 10 thousand
Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria over time (from 2005 to vehicles, a proportion or number which is up to 40 times
2019). Using the time series analysis, the study revealed more than what is obtained in most of the ‘industrialized
the direction or pattern of road traffic accidents in Port nations of the world.
Harcourt. Both primary and secondary sources of data on
road traffic crashes were utilized. Periodic documentary However, the situation in Nigeria is worse than many
reports from the Federal Road Safety Office, Port nations of the world considering the number of road crashes
Harcourt formed greater percentage of the secondary which is obvious despite the good network of roads (Atubi,
sources of data. The trend shows that accidents were not 2010). The factremains that crash proportion in Nigeria is
uniform over the years. The result of the prediction of ranked ahead of other countries in Africa. The Federal Road
accident between 2020 and 2024 shows a downward Safety Commission Report (2008) shows that from the period
slope; meaning a downward reduction in accidents from of 1970 to 2005, Nigeria witnessed 726,383 road traffic
2020 to 2024. Based on the findings of the study, it was crashes, killing up to 208,655 people with injuries amounting
suggested that stringent measures and enforcement be to 596,425. In the same vein, Lagos State alone witnessed up
put in place by traffic regulation agencies. Also, adequate to 39,141 road traffic crashes in the period 2011 to 2015
enlightenment programmes should be mounted regularly killing 10,132 people while those injured were 18,972 (Atubi,
by FRSC for effective sensitization of motorists. 2017). He added that every progressive year within the study
period witnessed an increment in accidents, deaths, and
Keywords:- Trend Analysis, Time Series, Road Traffic, injuries. This therefore shows that the Nigeria accidents’
Accidents, Casualties, Motorists. pattern and occurrences tend to show that better roads result
in more casualties and more proportion in the intensity and
I. INTRODUCTION number of deaths due to driver’s non-compliance to road
traffic rules (Onakomaiya, 2000; Gbadamosi, 2004; Filani
The importance of transportation to human wellbeing and Gbadamosi, 2007).
and economic development cannot be over emphasized. The
invention of automobile has increased the mobility of man all The trend of road accidents situation in Port Harcourt
over the world (World Bank, 2013). In Nigeria and other urban is almost similar to other parts of the country. Report
countries, the industry is generally regarded as an engine of the Federal Office of Statistics (2016), shows that Port
room of development because of the crucial role it plays in Harcourt has a steady accident rate since its creation in 1990.
linking all segments of the economy (FRSC, 2012). Despite In the year 1996, 60 deaths were recorded, in 1997, 29
the importance and contributions of road transportation to deaths, in 1998 it rose to 135 deaths and in 2013, 2014, and
economic development and social well-being of man and 2015 the figures were 190, 254 and 242 respectively
society, its unregulated and improper use has adverse effects (Arosanyin, 2017). Although many works incorporated
on man, the environment and the society it serves. The different aspects of road traffic accidents in their studies at
adverse impact of automobile traffic on human health can be different times and places, studies typically examining the
categorised into three namely; air pollution, noise pollution trend of road traffic accidents in Port Harcourt is scanty. It is
and traffic accidents. An estimated 1.3 million people are on this basis, that this study seeks to analyse the trend of road
killed through road accident annually around the world and traffic accidents in Nigeria with particular reference to Port
as many as 50 million suffer from injuries (Murtala, Raji and Harcourt city, Rivers State, using time series analysis.
Udokang, 2015). In some developing countries of the world
like Nigeria, traffic crashes constitute the greatest problem II. THE CONCEPT OF TREND ANALYSIS
that requires urgent attention. The issue has not received the
attention it deserves likely due to the nation’s state of under- The concept of trend analysis as a sub-set of time series
development (Atubi, 2012). analytical techniqueis the aspect of technical analysis that
tries to predict the future behaviour events using past data. It
The first African Congress on road safety in Nairobi is also defined statistically as a technique for extracting an
1989, placed Nigeria far ahead of other nations in African in underlying pattern of behaviour in a time-series, which would
terms of mortality rate on the highways. In the same vein, otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden. Trend is the
Kenya was rated very high in terms of her fatality rate general pattern of fluctuation of data over time. Time series is
worldwide, due to automobile ownership and related crashes a set of observations taken at specific times, usually at equal
with the average of 7 casualties in 35 daily accidents or about intervals such as daily, weekly, monthly or yearly (Ndiyo,
3,000 persons killed in about 13,000 yearly traffic accidents 2005). As a form of statistical analysis, it enables one to

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Volume 6, Issue 12, December – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
predict or determine the behaviour of past data. The V. DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
relevance of trend analysis is vital to every competent
technical analysis. This is based on the firm belief of the A. Road Traffic Accidents in Port Harcourt
philosophical construct of technical analysis, using time Table 1 shows the yearly number of road traffic accidents
series. in Port Harcourt from 2005 to 2019 as recorded by Federal
Road Safety Commission. From the table, a total of 1,190
III. COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES accident cases were recorded in the study area within the
period under study. During this period, 2006 and 2010 had
Statistical analysis involving time series may be the highest number of accidents with 123 cases constituting
classified into four main types, often called the components 10.3percent. This was followed by the year 2005 with 122
of time series. They are; the trend, cyclic variations, seasonal cases representing 10.2 percent. Furthermore, the year 2007,
variations and irregular (random) variations. Trend analysis 2009 and 2008 recorded 115, 109 and 104 accident cases
is however adopted for this study. In the analysis, the ‘least with percentages of 9.3, 9.2 and 8.7 respectively. The number
square method’ was used as it is the most widely used of road traffic accidents in the years 2006and 2010 were high
method of trend estimation; and is based on the method of because of the high rate of motorcycles ownership in Port
regression analysis. It involves finding an equation for the Harcourt.
trend. As a regression analysis, the points (values) are plotted
on a graph and fit a trend line to the set of data using the However, the table shows a decline in road traffic
equation obtained below. The equation is used to get the accidents from 2007 to 2008; with marginal increase in 2009
trend values and the trend line. The general equation is as of 109 cases. After 2010 the figure dropped to 48 and rose
follows: again in 2012 with 61 accident cases. Thereafter, there was a
y = a + bx + e rise and fall in the figures. This could be attributed to the ban
Where y = estimated value of the dependent variable on motorcycle mode of public transportation in the city. The
a = y intercept (where the regression line touches y year 2013 had the lowest accident cases of 31 constituting 2.6
axis) percent. This could be due to neglect in recording or
b = regression coefficient or reporting of accident cases in the state (FRSC 2013).
slope Generally, the trend could be as a result of rapid rate of
x = independent variable motorization and urbanization in the state capital. The table
e = residual error also showvariations in the nature of accidents; whether fatal
or minor within the same period, including the number of
IV. MATERIALS AND METHODS vehicles involved and the major causes of accidents.
Port Harcourt city, the study area is the administrative
capital of Rivers State of Nigeria. The city lies along the S/N Year Number of
Bonny River and is located in the Niger Delta.Port Harcourt Accidents
is located between latitudes 6o 58’N and 70 6’N of the
1 2005 122
Equator, and between longitude 4o 40’E and 4o 55’E of the
2 2006 123
Greenwich Meridian.It falls almost entirely within the low-
land swamp forest ecological zone and is flanked in the east, 3 2007 115
west, north and southern limits by mangrove swamp forest 4 2008 104
(Akpogomeh, 2010). Port Harcourt grew from an area of 5 2009 109
15.54km2 in 1914, to an uncontrolled area of 360km2 in the 6 2010 123
1980s (Ayotamuno and Gobo, 2004). As the capital of Rivers 7 2011 48
State, the city has become an important administrative centre 8 2012 61
with regular road, water and transport services to other parts 9 2013 31
of Nigeria.Port Harcourt has a population of 1,865,000
10 2014 69
people and a population density of 15.54 person/square
kilometres (NPC, 2006). This figure was projected to 2019 11 2015 48
using 3% growth rate, resulting to 2,037,936. The city is 12 2016 56
highly heterogeneous and it inhabits people from different 13 2017 51
ethnic groups all speaking different languages. The main 14 2018 67
socio-economic activities of the people of Port Harcourt city 15 2019 63
include fishing, industrial and commercial activities. Total 1,190
Table 1: Yearly Number of Road Traffic Accidents in
The study relied mainly on secondary data. The data on Port Harcourt (2005 – 2019)
accident cases were mainly from Federal Office of Statistics
and Federal Road Safety Commission, Port Harcourt. Source: Federal Road Safety Commission, Port
Harcourt, Rivers State (2020)

B. Time Series Analysis

This analysis employed the Least Square Method. Data for the analysis were gotten from Table 1. The results are
presented below:

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Volume 6, Issue 12, December – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
2
Year Number of Traffic Accidents (y) x x xy
2005 122 0 0 0
2006 123 1 1 123
2007 115 2 4 230
2008 104 3 9 312
2009 109 4 16 436
2010 123 5 25 615
2011 48 6 36 288
2012 61 7 49 427
2013 31 8 64 248
2014 69 9 81 621
2015 48 10 100 480
2016 56 11 121 616
2017 51 12 144 612
2018 67 13 169 871
2019 63 14 11
196 882
Total ∑y=1190 ∑x=105 ∑x 1015
2=
∑xy=6761
Table 2: Time Series Analysis Table

Source: Personal Computation, 2020.

Using y = a + bx + e (as above)

a= b=

(1190)(1015)−(105)(6761) 1207850−709905 1207850−709905

Therefore: a= = =
15(1015)−(11025) 15225−11025 15225−11025

497945
= = 118.56; a = 118.56
4200

15(6761)−(105)(1190) 15(6761)−(105)(1190) 101415−124950

b= = =
15(1015)−(11025) 15(1015)−(11025) 15225−11025

= −23535
= -5.60; b = -5.60
4200

Hence, the trend equation is:

y = 118.56 + (-5.60)x + e
wherex = 0; y = 118.56
x = 1; y = 118.56-5.60(1) = 112.96
x = 2; y = 118.56-5.60(2) = 107.36
x = 3; y = 118.56-5.60(3) = 101.76
x = 4; y = 118.56-5.60(4) = 96.56
x = 5; y = 118.56-5.60(5) = 90.56
x = 6; y = 118.56-5.60(6) = 84.96
x = 7; y = 118.56-5.60(7) = 79.36
x = 8; y = 118.56-5.60(8) = 73.76
x = 9; y = 118.56-5.60(9) = 68.16
x = 10; y = 118.56-5.60(10) = 62.56
x = 11; y = 118.56-5.60(11) = 56.96
x = 12; y = 118.56-5.60(12) = 51.36
x = 13; y = 118.56-5.60(13) = 45.76
x = 14; y = 118.56-5.60(14) = 40.16
x = 15; y = 118.56-5.60(15) = 34.56

 Decision: Using the trend equation y = 118.56 + (-5.60)x + e, it was possible to evaluate the trend in the number of traffic
accidents from the period of 2005 to 2019 as shown in table 3. The trend equation can also be used to determine or predict the
trend of the number of traffic crashes in subsequent years to come.

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Volume 6, Issue 12, December – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
Year Trend Value
2005 112.96
2006 107.36
2007 101.76
2008 96.56
2009 90.56
2010 84.96
2011 79.36
2012 73.76
2013 68.16
2014 62.56
2015 56.96
2016 51.36
2017 45.76
2018 40.16
2019 34.56
Table 3: Traffic Accident Trend Analysis (2005 – 2019)

Source: Statistical Calculations, 2020

Trend Analysis Plot of Road Traffic Accident

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No. of Accients Trend value

Fig. 1: Trend Analysis Plot of Road Traffic Accident

C. Traffic Accident Trend Value Prediction (2020-2024)

Accident trend was predicted for a period of 5 years (2020 -2024) using the existing formula and data in table 3, the predicted
accident rate was calculated as shown below:

For the year 2020, x = 16; y = 28.96

For the year 2021, x = 17; y = 23.36
For the year 2022, x = 18; y = 17.76
For the year 2023, x = 19; y = 12.16
For the year 2024, x = 20; y = 6.56

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Volume 6, Issue 12, December – 2021 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

Road Traffic Accident Trend Value Plot Prediction

(2020-2024)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Fig. 2: Road Traffic Accident Trend Value Plot Prediction (2020-2024)

From the above information as substantiated by the [1.] Akpogomeh, O. S. (2010) Recent trends in road traffic
statistical calculation, it is clear that accident trend is likely accident parameters in Nigeria. Journal of the Social
to be reducing over time. This reduction could be due to the Science Academy of Nigeria, vol. 12.
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potentials of increasing accident shall have been accidents on the African economy paper presented at
implemented in the study area. the world conference of transport research, July 22-27
at Seoul, South Korea.
VI. RECOMMENDATIONS [3.] Atubi, A. O. (2010) Spatial and temporal perspective
on RTA variations in Lagos mainland, South Western
 Road traffic accidents cannot be wished away completely, Nigeria African Research Review. An International
particularly in the study area.For the result of the predicted Multi-Disciplinary Journal, Ethiopia. Vol. 4(l).
trend to be maintained there would be need for stringent [4.] Atubi, A. O. (2017) Modelling road traffic accidents in
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agencies in the city. and State, 1(1 & 2); 57-7
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bad roads therefore, the Government of Rivers State Nigeria, 1980-96, Lagos.
should ensure regular rehabilitation, reconstruction and [6.] Filani, M.O. &Gbadamosi, K. T. (2007) Spatial and
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 Above all, effective sensitization of motorists by the [8.] Gbadamosi, K. T. (2004) Spatial analysis of road
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VII. CONCLUSION Trend analysis on road traffic accident in Nigeria.
Science Innovation, 3(5), 52-57
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trend and pattern of road traffic accidents in Port Harcourt, computer applications. Calabar: Wusen Publishers
Rivers State. By this, it was observed that the trend and [11.] NNPC, (2006) Population and housing Survey, Taraba
pattern of road accident in the area vary across tAhe years. State Priority Tables, vol. 1
However, the predicted trend values for the next 5 years [12.] Onakomaiya, S. O. (1991) General trend of safety and
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