Since the omicron variant started driving cases of the coronavirus, there hasn't been a lot of good news about the pandemic: all-time high hospitalization rates, skepticism about evolving quarantine guidelines, and a shortage of tests (not to mention the confusion about how to properly use one).
But now, finally, there appears to be some good news: Omicron might be on its way out.
The omicron variant has driven record numbers of coronavirus cases this winter—in many states, COVID infection rates are four times what they were during last winter's surge, according to a New York Times database. Naturally, epidemiologists have been trying to pinpoint when the omicron wave will peak and cases will begin to fall. And just last week, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, M.D., said it’s likely going to get worse before case rates finally start falling. “The next few weeks will be tough,” he told CNN’s State of the Union, as SELF reported.
But based on the latest case numbers, Anthony Fauci, M.D., director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is cautiously optimistic that many areas of the country may have already reached the omicron peak. “There are still some states in the Southern states and Western states [where cases] continue to go up, but if the pattern follows the trend that we’re seeing in other places such as the Northeast, I believe that you will start to see a turnaround throughout the entire country,” Dr. Fauci said in an appearance on ABC's This Week on Sunday, per The New York Times. “Things are looking good. We don’t want to get overconfident, but they look like they’re going in the right direction right now.”
There is of course the possibility of another variant following omicron, which Dr. Fauci called “the worst-case scenario.” It's important to be prepared for that—to continue masking and to get a booster shot if you haven't already. But hopefully, we are nearing the light at the end of the tunnel. “What we would hope is that, as we get into the next weeks to month or so, we’ll see throughout the entire country the level of infection get to below what I call that area of control,” Dr. Fauci said. That doesn't mean COVID cases will fall to zero but rather that “they’re there but they don’t disrupt society,” he said. “That’s the best-case scenario.”
Even though omicron cases are falling in many areas of the country, that doesn't mean the surge is over. Hundreds of thousands of new cases are still being reported every day, and hospitalizations (which tend to lag behind positive cases) are still rising—according to the Times database, hospitalizations are up 18% over last week. This is of particular concern for people who aren't vaccinated. “There may be a bit more pain and suffering with hospitalizations in those areas of the country that have not been fully vaccinated or have not gotten boosted,” Dr. Fauci said.
So yes, there is good news about the future of the omicron surge. But it's not time to burn your masks or turn off your Google alert for “booster recommendations” just yet. To get to the “area of control” Dr. Fauci described, keep testing, keep masking, and keep up to date on your vaccines.
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