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  MikeCheck: Grizzlies take 7th-best odds into NBA Draft Lottery with roster upgrade options open

  CHICAGO – Just how lucky is the No. 7, truly?

  As it relates to the NBA’s Draft Lottery odds, the Grizzlies are on the verge of finding out.

  The Grizzlies are among 14 teams that will enter McCormick Place West Convention Center in Chicago on Sunday hoping a set of numbered ping-pong balls bounce their way and deliver the No. 1 pick in next month’s NBA Draft.

  Coming off an injury-riddled 27-55 season, Memphis is slotted with the seventh-best odds as it lands in the lottery for the third time in seven years. However, the Grizzlies are in a unique position amid mostly young and rebuilding teams looking to draft the next prized prospects.

  The Grizzlies are a bit of an outlier in a group that includes the Pistons, Wizards, Blazers, Spurs and Hornets – teams that own the best odds to emerge Sunday with the top pick. 

  The Grizzlies arrive at the lottery with a proven core just entering their prime in Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, a veteran supporting cast that includes Marcus Smart and rapidly developing young talent in Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson.

  

  So, regardless of where the ping-pong balls settle Sunday, Memphis will move forward with a top draft asset and plenty of encouraging avenues to further bolster its roster. A franchise that recently finished second in the Western Conference over consecutive seasons will be set up to quickly bounce back from last season’s letdown and reclaim status among the top contenders.

  “We’ll obviously have more information about what pick we have, (and) a lot begins to allow us to think through next steps,” Grizzlies president of basketball operations Zach Kleiman said ahead of Sunday’s lottery. “We’re going to be openminded on what we can do with that pick.”

  Kleiman is prepared with a response and will get to work no matter how the lottery pans out.

  “If on Lottery Night we move up, what I will have to say is, ‘Great, we’ve moved up – either we’re going to take the best available player or trade the pick,’” Kleiman suggested. “If we don’t move up on Lottery Night, I’ll say, ‘We still have this great pick; we’re either going to trade the pick or pick the best player available. We know what we want to address . . . We’ll have a better idea once we know where we are in this draft.”

  As the countdown to clarity looms, here are Grind City Media’s ‘Five Things To Know’ about the Grizzlies entering the lottery.

  

  1. The Lottery Odds

  Seeded behind Detroit (14.0%), Washington (14.0%), Charlotte (13.3%), Portland (13.2%), San Antonio (10.5%) and Toronto (9.0%), Memphis has a 7.5-percent shot to secure the No. 1 pick.

  That places the Grizzlies right in the middle of the lottery pecking order. Slotted behind Memphis entering Sunday are Utah (6.0%), Brooklyn (4.5%), Atlanta (3.0%), Chicago (2.0%), Houston (1.5%), Sacramento (0.8%) and Golden State (0.7%).

  Historically, teams in the Grizzlies’ 7^th position entering the lottery have fared well, especially recently. Since the lottery expanded to its current format in 1990, there have been eight instances where the team slotted seventh jumped into the top four after the lottery drawing.

  It happened five consecutive years from 2018 to 2022. And three times – in 2000, 2007 and 2019 – the team with the seventh-best lottery odds emerged with the No. 1 pick. The Grizzlies are one of nine NBA franchises that has never landed in the lottery’s top spot.

  

  2. The Recent History

  The last two times the Grizzlies were in the draft lottery, they moved in far different directions but ultimately acquired a pair of franchise anchors.

  In 2018, the Grizzlies had the NBA’s second-worst record, therefore the second-best odds to secure the No. 1 pick. As it turned out, Memphis fell two spots and into the fourth pick, which produce Jackson Jr. after Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley and Luka Doncic were selected.

  A year later, the Grizzlies were part of a historic result at the draft lottery. Positioned eighth going in, Memphis was one of three teams that jumped into the top four when the balls dropped. The Pelicans hopped from seventh to the No. 1 spot and ultimately picked Zion Williamson, the Grizzlies propelled from eighth to No. 2 and chose Morant and the Lakers leapfrogged from 11^th in the order to the No. 4 slot to draft and trade De’Andre Hunter.

  In Jackson Jr. and Morant, the Grizzlies duo has combined for three All-Star appearances, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player and a Rookie of the Year selection.

  

  3. The Stage Reps

  The Grizzlies will be represented on the lottery broadcast stage by vice president of basketball affairs Tayshaun Prince, a 14-year NBA veteran who won a championship in 2004 with Detroit. 

  Prince is one of the most respected and connected voices in the organization when it comes to relationships with executives, players and agents across the league. When the Grizzlies were last in the lottery, multiple players who either worked out or interviewed with the Grizzlies during the draft process spoke highly of their dealings with Prince and his ability to relate.

  Memphis will also have a front-office executive, presumably Kleiman, representing the team inside the sequestered room where the actual lottery drawing is administered by an independent accounting firm. That process unfolds 90 minutes prior to the national television broadcast, where the 14 team envelopes holding results will be revealed in descending order.

  

  4. Best-case, Worst-case Scenarios

  Picking up from where we left on in the First Thing To Know about the Grizzlies entering the lottery – here’s a guarantee: Memphis will end up with no worse than the No. 11 pick.

  Another fact: Based on lottery rules and metrics, it’s impossible for the Grizzlies to get the fifth or sixth selections. So, they have 31.9-percent chance to land a top-four pick, a 19.7-percent shot to remain at seventh or a 48.3-percent possibility to fall to eighth, ninth, 10^th or 11th.

  Much like the Grizzlies’ potential landing spots in the lottery, the top prospects in this year’s draft class are also essentially all over the board, based on prominent mock drafts.

  The consensus heads of the class appear to be French center Alex Sarr, French swingman Zaccharie Risacher, a pair of UCONN championship teammates in guard Stephon Castle and center Donovan Clingan, along with Kentucky’s duo of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard.

  

  5. What’s Next

  Once the lottery ends, the Grizzlies will be among the NBA’s 30 teams with executives and coaching staffs remaining in Chicago to attend the weeklong NBA Draft Combine.

  Nearly 80 draft-eligible players were invited to the Combine, which starts Monday, to take measurements, interview with team personnel and participate in drills or workouts. Unlike in previous years, a relatively new amendment to the league’s collective bargaining agreement requires invited players to participate in many of the organized Combine activities.

  It all leads to next month’s NBA Draft, which for the first time will take place over two days in New York. The first round is June 26 and the second round is June 27. The Grizzlies are currently positioned to have their lottery selection as well as picks No. 39 and 56 in the second round.

  Michael Wallace
  Published on May 10, 2024

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