Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue to cast a long shadow over Serbia well into 2023.

Still wrestling with the collective memory of being bombed by NATO in 1999, the predominantly Orthodox country has found itself squeezed between traditional ties to Russia and an official policy of pursuing European integration.

Now a decade in power, Aleksandar Vucic as president is treading a fine line between the two, voting at the United Nations to condemn Russia’s February 24 invasion but refusing to join Western sanctions on the Kremlin.

Experts expect the balancing act to continue into 2023, but pressure will build on other fronts, notably Kosovo and the cost-of-living crisis, both issues driven of late by events in Ukraine.

“The war has changed the way this part of the world is perceived,” said Dusan Spasojevic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade. “The West is now pushing for a quicker resolution on Kosovo because of the war in Ukraine. And because of that there is a chance an agreement can be reached.”

In terms of everyday life for the average Serb, “the situation will be bad for most,” said economist Ljubomir Savic.

Inflation is stretching household finances to the limit, but unrest looks unlikely if only for the fact that no opposition political force has a foothold among the poorest.

“It will not be better in 2023,” Savic told BIRN. “I just hope it will not be worse.”