Germany’s credibility was always high in the Western Balkans, much of it due to Merkel, whose Germany has been crucial to shaping the debate on EU enlargement to the region.

However, in order to maintain this credibility, the next German government will have to adapt to new challenges and circumstances pertaining to the region.

Thus, Merkel took the opportunity to visit the region one last time and send a strong message, not just to the Western Balkans, but to the future German government and Germany’s partners in the EU.

Here are four important takeaways from the visit:

1. German commitment continues after Merkel

Regardless of the outcome of the German federal elections this month, the new German chancellor is likely to remain committed to the Western Balkans. This was the first message that Merkel wanted to convey during her visit.

“Regardless of how the German election turns out, any new German Chancellor will have a heart for the region,” Merkel said during the press conference with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Germany, she stressed, will continue to support regional cooperation and integration.

Merkel knows that expectations of the German leadership are high, especially since the EU’s credibility in the region has been undermined by a lack of progress in accession talks with Serbia and Montenegro, delayed membership talks for Albania and North Macedonia and lack of visa liberalisation for Kosovo.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (2-C) and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama (L) during a welcome ceremony in Tirana. Photo: EPA-EFE/Malton Dibra

2. The Berlin Process is irreplaceable

Merkel made it clear that Germany will continue to support the region’s EU aspirations and that this commitment will continue through the Berlin Process, the flagship diplomatic initiative launched in 2014 by Merkel herself with the purpose of keeping the dynamics of EU integration on track.

In 2019, the leaders of Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia launched the Mini-Schengen (Open Balkan) initiative to boost regional cooperation in the region. This effort is largely seen as running in parallel with the Berlin Process but still lacks the explicit support of the EU and certainly the other Western Balkan countries.

The differing opinions on the initiative have spiralled into tense disagreements, especially between Albania and Kosovo. The former has been a strong proponent of the initiative, whereas the latter sees it as a path to Serbian domination of the region.

Merkel did not comment directly on the Open Balkan initiative, but said that the Berlin Process was the “centrepiece”.

Asked which initiative should prevail, Merkel replied: “The Berlin Process, if I may just say so, is of course the centerpiece. Some of the projects in the Berlin Process may be implemented by some countries more quickly and others more slowly, but that does not replace the Berlin Process. Rather, the question is: can we go ahead within the Berlin process.”

3. Serbia cannot join the EU without settling Kosovo relations

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (R) talks during the press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) after their meeting in Belgrade. Photo: EPA-EFE/ANDREJ CUKIC

Merkel made it abundantly clear to Serbia that there won’t be EU membership without reaching a settlement with Kosovo. During a press conference with President Aleksandar Vucic, she stated that “there is no point in talking about the end of the EU integration process before solving the Kosovo-Serbia issue.”

Vucic appeared to understand the message. “If the question is whether we are aware that we will not enter the EU before resolving the Kosovo issue – it is absolutely clear,” he said.

Germany was among the first to swiftly recognise Kosovo as a sovereign state following its 2008 declaration of independence and has since been a strong supporter of the country’s statehood and international integration.

Thus, without a final settlement between Kosovo and Serbia, the chances of EU membership for Serbia, which is considered a frontrunner for accession, are almost nonexistent.

4. The EU integration of the Western Balkans is of geostrategic importance

Merkel said the EU had a significant geostrategic interest in seeing all Western Balkan states admitted into the bloc, and warned of possible influences from other countries if the EU did not act quickly enough in certain situations. She did not mention China or Russia by name, but the inference was clear.

“We Europeans, who are already members of the European Union, should always keep in mind that there is an absolute geostrategic interest for us to really accept these countries into the European Union and we see when you said there are steps backwards, that there is also influence from many other regions of the world,” Merkel said in Belgrade.

Chinese influence has dramatically increased in the region over the last few years. Beijing has billions, particularly in Serbia, in infrastructure and surveillance. Serbia has also become a production hub for China’s Sinopharm vaccine as well as Russia’s Sputnik V.

The next German chancellor will likely continue to support the Western Balkans; however, filling Merkel’s shoes is going to be a difficult mission. The level of engagement in the region will depend on the outcome of the elections in Germany.

Visar Xhambazi is a policy researcher at Democracy for Development (D4D) Institute in Kosovo and a young professional advisor at United Europe in Germany. He holds a master’s degree in International Studies from Old Dominion University in Virginia, specialising in US foreign policy and international relations. Twitter: @Visar.Xhambazi

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.