LAST UPDATED: 12:01 AM EST, November 18 2022
Snow squalls have developed over Lake Huron, Lake Erie, and Georgian Bay this evening, and more are expected to develop over Lake Ontario this weekend. This event is going to bring a lot of snow for some areas and it is important to be prepared. It is also important to note that local snowfall amounts will vary due to the localization of snow squalls.
We understand that our snowfall outlook may be a tad confusing, so we wanted to provide some rationale behind it. Because snow squalls are very localized in nature, it is very common to have a "fine gradient" of snowfall totals. This means that there may be areas where one location gets 30 cm of snow, and an area 5 kilometres away gets 5 cm of snow.
Our main areas of concern are the Bruce Peninsula, Niagara Region, Georgian Bay, and the Kingston area. Snow squalls will strengthen tonight and will continue throughout the weekend. Any area outlined in the dashed red line may see locally heavier snowfall amounts than forecasted.
On the state side, Buffalo, NY has declared a State of Emergency as over 100 cm is expected. A snow squall has developed over Lake Erie and will continue to bring heavy snow and gusty winds over the Fort Erie area until late Saturday. It is expected that there will be a brief break late Friday as the squall moves south, and then moves north again into the area. Locally greater snowfall amounts of 60 cm or greater are possible.
Snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will continue as well, bringing 45 to 50 cm of snow to the Bruce Peninsula by the end of the weekend. Snow squalls are expected to strengthen overnight into Saturday. Local snowfall amounts of 60 to 75 cm are possible.
New snow squalls will develop over Eastern Ontario late Friday into Saturday, before dissipating on Sunday. Travel in these areas, especially the 401, will likely be very dangerous due to strong winds and rapidly accumulating snowfall. Local snowfall amounts of 30 to 40 cm are possible.
As stated, due to the nature of snow squalls, local amounts may vary significantly. Due to these snow squalls being accompanied by strong winds, very poor visibility is expected in many areas due to blowing snow. Weather and road conditions will deteriorate very quickly in most areas. Road closures are likely. Any unnecessary travel should be cancelled until conditions improve.
This Snowfall Outlook will be updated as deemed necessary.