- US Dollar meanders ahead of vital US inflation print
- Gold (XAU/USD) attempts bullish continuation as the IDF pushes into Rafah
- Sterling to be driven by labour market data and Fed speak, with the Euro eying sentiment data as well as US-linked data and speeches
- The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library
US Inflation Data and Fed Comments Ought to Provide Direction for USD
The US dollar traded in an indecisive manner last week, reacting to incoming data – most notably initial jobless claims on Thursday. US CPI data on Wednesday is likely to provide a directional catalyst unless figures print in line with the general consensus.
The chart below highlights the influence inflation data can have on interest rate expectations and ultimately the dollar, after the March CPI data worryingly exceeded expectations. The month on month core CPI data has been stubbornly hot at 0.4% for the last three readings and markets will be eager to see if this focus point can head to a preferable measure of 0.2% or lower.
The US has also experienced a softening in the labour market, first with a lower-than-expected NFP data and secondly, through higher-than-anticipated initial jobless claims. The weaker data places a temporary ceiling on USD upside, something that a hot CPI print is more than capable of rising above. However, if the market gives in to ‘recency bias’, lower CPI data may compound on the recent weaker jobs data, sending the dollar lower.
US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow
Prominent Fed members, including Jerome Powell, will provide their thoughts on Fed policy in the coming week. The effect on markets may be limited due to the fact there has not been an awful lot of data to sway opinions since the 1st of May Fed meeting.
Relevant Reading: Decoding Fedspeak: How Central Banker Comments Move Markets – Gold & US Dollar
For a complete overview of the U.S. dollar’s technical and fundamental outlook, request your complimentary Q2 trading forecast now!
Gold (XAU/USD) Attempts Bullish Continuation as the IDF Pushes into Rafah
Gold benefitted from a late push higher on Thursday and Friday to end the week higher. Gold had previously traded with a downward trajectory, pulling back from the all-time high. Trendline resistance proved too much to handle and the precious metal eased lower before the end of trade on Friday.
Gold is also likely to respond to the latest US inflation data as it tends to impact US Treasury yields, interest rate expectations and the greenback. Gold bulls will be hoping for softer CPI data to propel the metal higher and potentially test the all-time high.
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow
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Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c May 13th
US Dollar’s Path Tied to Inflation Outlook; Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
After poor performance earlier in the month, the U.S. dollar rebounded this week, supported by a moderate rise in bond yields. We could see a continuation of the greenback's upward movement if the upcoming US inflation report tops consensus estimates.
Gold Breaks Higher, Silver Rallies and Continues its Multi-Month Outperformance
After a period of consolidation, both gold and silver broke higher Thursday after weekly US jobless claims showed the labor market weakening.
British Pound Weekly Forecast: Caught Between Stronger Growth, Dovish BoE
News that recession was short and shallow will have pleased the bulls, but the Bank of England looks ready to cut rates next month if the data let it.
Euro Weekly Forecast: Euro Holds up but US Data May Change the Outlook
The euro has avoided a sell-off, mainly due to the weakness of its peers. Next week the single currency will be tested after the highly anticipated US CPI data is released.
--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX
