New discovery unveils key to predicting solar activity peaks

Scientists at IISER Kolkata utilise decades-old data to enhance solar cycle forecasting and predict solar activity peaks

In a groundbreaking development, researchers at the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, based at IISER Kolkata, have unearthed a new method for predicting the peak of solar activity in the ongoing sunspot cycle. This research discovery uses decades of data from multiple solar observatories, as detailed in a manuscript published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters.

The study, led by Priyansh Jaswal, Chitradeep Saha, and Dibyendu Nandy, builds upon the well-known Waldmeier effect and establishes a crucial connection between the Sun’s two primary magnetic field components.

The role of sunspots

This revelation challenges the conventional view that sunspots are just symptoms of the solar dynamo process, arguing their integral role in the solar cycle’s functioning.

The researchers demonstrate how observations of the rate of decrease in the Sun’s dipole magnetic field, combined with sunspot data, can significantly enhance the accuracy of predicting when a solar cycle will peak. 

This newfound capability offers a promising window for forecasting the timing of solar cycle peaks, a critical period marked by heightened solar activity and an increased likelihood of space weather disturbances.

Utilising decades-old observations

The analysis of decades-old data suggests that the maximum intensity of solar cycle 25, the ongoing sunspot cycle, is imminent. According to their findings, the peak is most likely to occur in early 2024, with an uncertainty range extending until September 2024.

 This newfound precision in predicting solar activity peaks provides:

• Valuable insights for space weather forecasting.
• Allowing for improved preparedness for potential impacts on orbiting satellites.
• Electric power grids.
• Global telecommunications systems.

Forecasting solar peaks

The implications of this discovery extend beyond the realm of pure scientific curiosity, offering practical applications in mitigating the effects of space weather on our increasingly interconnected technological infrastructure.

As humanity becomes more reliant on space-based technologies, the ability to forecast solar activity with greater precision becomes an essential tool for safeguarding our vital systems against the unpredictable forces of the Sun.