A Charlottesville/Albemarle Area RE Blog tracking the market's Boom Bubble Bust Bounce, from 2008 to 2013. The second half of 2010 saw a steep downward spiral in sales; 2011 saw sales volume at 13 yr lo with prices dropping each Quarter. 2012 began with even lower prices which resulted in an uptick in Y/Y sales, and mid-2012 saw "Carpe Diem" trumping "Caveat Emptor." 2013: Booming. Are we a "Protected Market" once again? Time will tell.
* Check out the microblogging on Twitter: @CvilleBubble *
Monday, March 29, 2010
Mortgage Volume Has Dropped 42% From '09, Despite Historically Low Rates
That's quite an ugly chart at the bottom of this BI post. Go here if chart doesn't reproduce on your browser.
32 comments:
downtownenvy
said...
I am DYING to hear how some of the other visitors to this site are going to comment on these last few tidbits.
Please do tell me again why I should stop my "whining" about Charlottesville and rush out to buy a home here. Ugh.
"Save me from my mistake": 1111 Alta Vista Avenue MLS 475325 in Belmont. Bought at 2005 top of bubble for $225k. Now proudly listed for $335k.
4 rooms, 800 sq ft. $293 a square foot. Seriously, you're smoking the crack from nearby Belmont Park on this one. And some jacka$$ probably will buy it. Because compared to the other shacks in Belmont it's a palace.
downtownenvy said... "Please do tell me again why I should stop my "whining" about Charlottesville and rush out to buy a home here."
Yes, you should stop whining. People often have to live outside their favorite area because they can't afford it. What makes you so special? And, as you should know perfectly well, nobody here suggests you should rush out to buy a home here.
11:29, irony is lost on you, and you're bitter. It's not like this is Manhattan, or even two hours from Manhattan. This is a College Town that thinks it's a "world class city" and has been dining out on the false images created by ridiculous "best" lists for years now.
You're probably one of the people who overpaid and will now gleefully take a principal writedown.
Oh for pity's sake, I KNOW that not everyone can afford to live in every area. That is why I moved to a small city in Virginia, and not Manhattan or San Francisco.
The bottom line here continues to be that this area is still very overpriced. You can drive 20 minutes out of town in any direction and be in the middle of virtually nowhere, this is NOT the suburbs of New York or LA.
This is not about me and my whining. It is about the ridiculous over inflation of prices and the refusal of many to recognize how much impact this is going to have on Charlottesville in the long term.
Am I annoyed about prices? Yes. Have I been willing to wait and carefully shop? Yes. Still am. I think what should really irritate you are all of the socioeconomic situations that are making Charlottesville a not so nice place to live right now. Also, if you really think that there aren't more foreclosures and slower sales in the near future, then you really have not been reading this blog very carefully.
Do overly high prices affect me as a buyer? Sure. They also hit hardworking agents and brokers, sellers, the city tax base and the list goes on and on. You may not be a fan of local realtors and mortgage brokers, but they need jobs too. Let's not even start on the numbers of people in construction and the support industries who have been shut down or laid off around here. This is our local economy that I am talking about, and not just my own situation.
Are you really in such a sparkle-filled little world that you don't get what is happening here? You bought a house and you don't care about the price or it's value because you adore Charlottesville. Well that's great. For you. Believe it or not, there a few more of us who live here too, and aren't so satisfied with things. And the whining? I am sure that if it gets too bad the Bubblers will moderate me. The great thing about this blog is I can whine if I feel like it and you can feel free to disagree. Thank goodness for discussion.
I certainly am sorry if I have offended you with my post, but I am so tired of people just taking a little happy pill and telling the rest of us to join them with their heads in the sand.
Well, Anonymous @12:34, you really know how to hurt a guy. The ultimate insult: I have no sense of irony!
Sadly, you are ignorant (a) about what constitutes irony and (b) my situation as a homeowner.
As for downtownenvy, no I am not offended by your rant. But you too make false assumptions about my situation and attitude that are based on nothing except your own whiny state of mind.
Of course, Charlottesville's woes are unfortunate, but do you really think this town is worse off than most in what is the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression? If so, you are clueless. This is a national problem, and all indications are that Charlottesville is holding up better than most.
I don't think the chart is that surprising. It would make a lot of sense that the dollar volume of mortgages is down 40% from 2007 since home prices are also down the same amount and equity requirements are generally higher. It would be more useful if they had a chart showing the NUMBER of loans for a trailing 10 year basis.
Anon 9:08. My "whiny state of mind"? Or cold, hard statistics, and these facts aren't just here on this blog. Clearly, we have agreed to disagree, but I would love to have some of what your having.
Downtown envy, I'm not saying things aren't tough here or that the housing market generally is reasonably priced. It's not. I am saying (1)you can find good deals if you do the work and (2) that believe it or not, Charlottesville is better off than most towns in this very difficult time.
Just a matter of time, thank you for your "solid analysis."
"All neighborhoods are created equal" BS about Cville:
410 Oak Street $187k MLS 475438 "The tax assessment is $243,600 but we have priced this to sell so that with improvements, this home will be very competitive." Competitive in 2005. In 2010, this needs a $100k price reduction to be "competitive."
Hey...410 Oak Street description is progress! Last year, they would have priced it $1k under assessed value and hope you didn't notice the lack of improvements.
Anon. 5:45- Just one more thing. I don't come here to give a solid analysis. I just come here to offer my personal opinion. I am not in the real estate industry like you, so it really wouldn't be proper for me to give anything other than my personal viewpoint.
If I confused you with the word statistics sorry about that.
Dear downtownenvy, I thanked a poster named "Just a matter of time" for the so-called solid analysis. But since you responded twice to that, we now know you are posting under at least two names. Maybe many!
And your "personal opinion" is obviously more important to you than any facts, particularly since you say I am in the real estate industry. I am not and never have been. However, my opinions are based on facts and analysis in my profession as well as long personal experience. But likely that doesn't count for much next to your "personal opinion," regardless of how many names you use.
More than one name? Nope. Sorry. I am and always have been DE. You can check with the bubblers to verify my IP if you need to do so. Sorry for the confusion.
I misunderstood and thought you were complimenting my analysis. Regardless, you certainly seem to be someone who feels they have gleaned more than the rest of us from the available information, so I was wrongfully assuming you were in the real estate biz. However, you yourself stated that your opinions are based on your profession and experience. So are mine. As such, I am sure they are just as valuable as the next persons.
Anon 2:37pm, we'll vouch for that (if it matters to you!) Downtownenvy is a well-known and well-respected commenter both here and at RealCentralVA (perhaps elsewhere,too).
DTE is upfront about search and price point, and has been pretty much for the duration of this blog.
BTW, You could pick a name that makes it easier to distinguish yourself from other anons, but no pressure.
Not under contract: 1141 Meriwether MLS 474730 $325, paid $295 in '05, assessed at $295:
There was speculation in Comments that this house would go under contract in 2 weeks by Loansome. Bleed It and Welcome to suckerville disagreed. See here:
410 Oak Street listed at $120/sq. ft, built in 1913, and sold 'as is' is very competitive? This is one of many mind boggling examples of overpriced fixer uppers in C'ville.
Ttme has passed and this apparently in these sellers' AND their agents' minds conveys "value."
The truth of the matter is, a lot of the used or in industry parlance "existing" housing stock in the City of Charlottesville that is listed $350k and under needs "upgrades." Seen houses from the '5o's '60's and '70's that have had one owner and still have original everything.
Guess what? You can now buy a BRAND NEW HOUSE built JUST FOR YOU for +/- $265k IN THE CITY. Example: Check out MONTE VISTA AVENUE.
i'm looking at a property and found 4 vandalisms and 1 assault on the block (and its a very small block) in the past year. I have the case numbers. How can I obtain detailed reports? Phone calls/emails to Charlottesville Police went no where. I want to find out if those incidents involved residents
Bubble Blog said: BTW, You could pick a name that makes it easier to distinguish yourself from other anons, but no pressure.
Glad to. I have previously been a pest under this monicker, but was then unable to get my posts through, probably through my technological incompetence, so I changed.
And I believe in the Easter bunny too! It would be great to have a blog page specifically with looker feedback on some of these open houses. Maybe then the owner and agent would get real. Where does one even begin to place an offer. Based on the MLS info, I might nibble at $68K.
TO April 1 3:47: Sorry, that was MONTROSE in Belmont, not Monte Vista. Was looking at both streets same day. Both crowded but Monte Vista is a cul-de-sac. Lots of rentals on the half closer to JPA extended. Means more people in single family houses that have turned into multi units. 307 Monte Vista has been listed at foreclosure auction several times in past year including March.
Montrose is heart of Belmont. $269 or $289 for new construction still listed in MLS.
32 comments:
I am DYING to hear how some of the other visitors to this site are going to comment on these last few tidbits.
Please do tell me again why I should stop my "whining" about Charlottesville and rush out to buy a home here. Ugh.
"Save me from my mistake": 1111 Alta Vista Avenue MLS 475325 in Belmont. Bought at 2005 top of bubble for $225k. Now proudly listed for $335k.
4 rooms, 800 sq ft. $293 a square foot. Seriously, you're smoking the crack from nearby Belmont Park on this one. And some jacka$$ probably will buy it. Because compared to the other shacks in Belmont it's a palace.
downtownenvy said...
"Please do tell me again why I should stop my "whining" about Charlottesville and rush out to buy a home here."
Yes, you should stop whining. People often have to live outside their favorite area because they can't afford it. What makes you so special? And, as you should know perfectly well, nobody here suggests you should rush out to buy a home here.
11:29, irony is lost on you, and you're bitter. It's not like this is Manhattan, or even two hours from Manhattan. This is a College Town that thinks it's a "world class city" and has been dining out on the false images created by ridiculous "best" lists for years now.
You're probably one of the people who overpaid and will now gleefully take a principal writedown.
Oh for pity's sake, I KNOW that not everyone can afford to live in every area. That is why I moved to a small city in Virginia, and not Manhattan or San Francisco.
The bottom line here continues to be that this area is still very overpriced. You can drive 20 minutes out of town in any direction and be in the middle of virtually nowhere, this is NOT the suburbs of New York or LA.
This is not about me and my whining. It is about the ridiculous over inflation of prices and the refusal of many to recognize how much impact this is going to have on Charlottesville in the long term.
Am I annoyed about prices? Yes. Have I been willing to wait and carefully shop? Yes. Still am. I think what should really irritate you are all of the socioeconomic situations that are making Charlottesville a not so nice place to live right now. Also, if you really think that there aren't more foreclosures and slower sales in the near future, then you really have not been reading this blog very carefully.
Do overly high prices affect me as a buyer? Sure. They also hit hardworking agents and brokers, sellers, the city tax base and the list goes on and on. You may not be a fan of local realtors and mortgage brokers, but they need jobs too. Let's not even start on the numbers of people in construction and the support industries who have been shut down or laid off around here. This is our local economy that I am talking about, and not just my own situation.
Are you really in such a sparkle-filled little world that you don't get what is happening here? You bought a house and you don't care about the price or it's value because you adore Charlottesville. Well that's great. For you. Believe it or not, there a few more of us who live here too, and aren't so satisfied with things. And the whining? I am sure that if it gets too bad the Bubblers will moderate me. The great thing about this blog is I can whine if I feel like it and you can feel free to disagree. Thank goodness for discussion.
I certainly am sorry if I have offended you with my post, but I am so tired of people just taking a little happy pill and telling the rest of us to join them with their heads in the sand.
typo: alta vista is $235k, which is 2005 price plus fees. it's assessed at $165k.
Well, Anonymous @12:34, you really know how to hurt a guy. The ultimate insult: I have no sense of irony!
Sadly, you are ignorant (a) about what constitutes irony and (b) my situation as a homeowner.
As for downtownenvy, no I am not offended by your rant. But you too make false assumptions about my situation and attitude that are based on nothing except your own whiny state of mind.
Of course, Charlottesville's woes are unfortunate, but do you really think this town is worse off than most in what is the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression? If so, you are clueless. This is a national problem, and all indications are that Charlottesville is holding up better than most.
I don't think the chart is that surprising. It would make a lot of sense that the dollar volume of mortgages is down 40% from 2007 since home prices are also down the same amount and equity requirements are generally higher. It would be more useful if they had a chart showing the NUMBER of loans for a trailing 10 year basis.
Wow, so clueless: "This is a national problem, and all indications are that Charlottesville is holding up better than most."
All indications are that Charlottesville is headed for a giant crash.
http://www.mycaar.com/%28vdwfpbfkr0xw2w45uwx20m3k%29/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=475167
$375k for this 1,350 NOT RENOVATED home..note the window AC unit.
Previous sales:
$318k 4/2008
$155k 6/2004
Can we please bring on 2004 already????? I'm getting sick of waiting. I will continue renting i'm not going to crack.
Anon 9:08. My "whiny state of mind"? Or cold, hard statistics, and these facts aren't just here on this blog. Clearly, we have agreed to disagree, but I would love to have some of what your having.
***Whats up with Real Estate III***
Big event at the Paramount on April the 8th to announce there new affiliation with Better Homes and Gardens! 10:00 a.m. Aren't they a magazine????
Headed for pain:
MLS 475387 3479 Devon Pines Keswick
Assessed $445k
Asking $619k
Last sold: $625
Optimistic sellers w/ runup in price
410 Altamont Street Cville Asking $439k
Sold 2004 $362,500
Sold 2000 $215k
Already taking a loss:
MLS 475222 2366 N Chesterfield Ct $269,900k
Paid $289k 2006
Assessed 247k
Downtown envy, I'm not saying things aren't tough here or that the housing market generally is reasonably priced. It's not. I am saying (1)you can find good deals if you do the work and (2) that believe it or not, Charlottesville is better off than most towns in this very difficult time.
Just a matter of time, thank you for your "solid analysis."
"You're welcome."
"All neighborhoods are created equal" BS about Cville:
410 Oak Street $187k MLS 475438 "The tax assessment is $243,600 but we have priced this to sell so that with improvements, this home will be very competitive." Competitive in 2005. In 2010, this needs a $100k price reduction to be "competitive."
Hey...410 Oak Street description is progress! Last year, they would have priced it $1k under assessed value and hope you didn't notice the lack of improvements.
Anon. 5:45- Just one more thing. I don't come here to give a solid analysis. I just come here to offer my personal opinion. I am not in the real estate industry like you, so it really wouldn't be proper for me to give anything other than my personal viewpoint.
If I confused you with the word statistics sorry about that.
Dear downtownenvy, I thanked a poster named "Just a matter of time" for the so-called solid analysis. But since you responded twice to that, we now know you are posting under at least two names. Maybe many!
And your "personal opinion" is obviously more important to you than any facts, particularly since you say I am in the real estate industry. I am not and never have been. However, my opinions are based on facts and analysis in my profession as well as long personal experience. But likely that doesn't count for much next to your "personal opinion," regardless of how many names you use.
More than one name? Nope. Sorry. I am and always have been DE. You can check with the bubblers to verify my IP if you need to do so. Sorry for the confusion.
I misunderstood and thought you were complimenting my analysis. Regardless, you certainly seem to be someone who feels they have gleaned more than the rest of us from the available information, so I was wrongfully assuming you were in the real estate biz. However, you yourself stated that your opinions are based on your profession and experience. So are mine. As such, I am sure they are just as valuable as the next persons.
Anon 2:37pm, we'll vouch for that (if it matters to you!) Downtownenvy is a well-known and well-respected commenter both here and at RealCentralVA (perhaps elsewhere,too).
DTE is upfront about search and price point, and has been pretty much for the duration of this blog.
BTW, You could pick a name that makes it easier to distinguish yourself from other anons, but no pressure.
Not under contract: 1141 Meriwether MLS 474730 $325, paid $295 in '05, assessed at $295:
There was speculation in Comments that this house would go under contract in 2 weeks by Loansome. Bleed It and Welcome to suckerville disagreed. See here:
http://realcville.blogspot.com/2010/03/top-10-homebuyer-faq-for.html
But tomorrow's another day. And the start of April Angst for lower-end sellers, as the homebuyer tax cred expires on the 30th.
Today's listings:
http://www.mycaar.com/%28xef532450y3r2pnoqcquoj45%29/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=475438
410 Oak Street listed at $120/sq. ft, built in 1913, and sold 'as is' is very competitive? This is one of many mind boggling examples of overpriced fixer uppers in C'ville.
Ttme has passed and this apparently in these sellers' AND their agents' minds conveys "value."
The truth of the matter is, a lot of the used or in industry parlance "existing" housing stock in the City of Charlottesville that is listed $350k and under needs "upgrades." Seen houses from the '5o's '60's and '70's that have had one owner and still have original everything.
Guess what? You can now buy a BRAND NEW HOUSE built JUST FOR YOU for +/- $265k IN THE CITY. Example: Check out MONTE VISTA AVENUE.
Recycled listing, same price for past year:
MLS#: 475492
1206 Greenway Rd $279,000
Check out crime stats and SO registry
i'm looking at a property and found 4 vandalisms and 1 assault on the block (and its a very small block) in the past year. I have the case numbers. How can I obtain detailed reports? Phone calls/emails to Charlottesville Police went no where. I want to find out if those incidents involved residents
Bubble Blog said: BTW, You could pick a name that makes it easier to distinguish yourself from other anons, but no pressure.
Glad to. I have previously been a pest under this monicker, but was then unable to get my posts through, probably through my technological incompetence, so I changed.
Star Chamber: "Guess what? You can now buy a BRAND NEW HOUSE built JUST FOR YOU for +/- $265k IN THE CITY. Example: Check out MONTE VISTA AVENUE."
Is there a MLS# for his and who is the builder please?
MLS#471935 is listed at $399K at 228 Monte Vista.
MLS#475167. Open House. 707 Evergreen at $375K. Only $278 sq. ft., circa 1938.
http://www.mycaar.com/%28acwsbq55fc4r3f553zb4zc55%29/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=475167
And I believe in the Easter bunny too! It would be great to have a blog page specifically with looker feedback on some of these open houses. Maybe then the owner and agent would get real. Where does one even begin to place an offer. Based on the MLS info, I might nibble at $68K.
Reader Responses to Current Listings:
Go here
http://realcville.blogspot.com/2010/04/reader-responses-to-current-listings.html
$68k for 707 Evergreen? nah, come on....you have to at least consider the rental income that it could generate.
TO April 1 3:47: Sorry, that was MONTROSE in Belmont, not Monte Vista. Was looking at both streets same day. Both crowded but Monte Vista is a cul-de-sac. Lots of rentals on the half closer to JPA extended. Means more people in single family houses that have turned into multi units. 307 Monte Vista has been listed at foreclosure auction several times in past year including March.
Montrose is heart of Belmont. $269 or $289 for new construction still listed in MLS.
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